Serie A
Atlético MG vs Bahia
Tue, 21 Jul 2026 - 23:30 (UK Time)
Stadium: Arena MRV
Atlético MG vs Bahia Prediction & Stats - Serie A 2026
Predictions
Another instalment of a long-running fixture. Atlético MG vs Bahia carries real history into this round of the Serie A.
The two sides meet on 21/07 (Tuesday) at Arena MRV, 23:30 (UK time).
Read the Atlético MG vs Bahia prediction below before backing anything.
Our verdict on Atlético MG vs Bahia
A deep head-to-head record gives this fixture a story, and that context feeds directly into our thinking. This is the Atlético MG vs Bahia call we are most confident in:
Eagle Predict Prediction
Under 2.5 Goals
Last updated on 19-07-2026.
Who do the bookmakers favour?
The market makes Atlético MG the side to beat, with roughly 44% of the implied odds in their favour.
For the wider picture, compare all Serie A odds and the rest of the round's fixtures before you settle on a bet.
Atlético MG Preview
Atlético MG reach this fixture 18 match into their Serie A. Here is where Galo stand:
In this competition
7 won, 3 drawn, 8 lost
1.33 points per game
22 scored, at 1.22 a game
23 conceded, at 1.28 a game
Galo, season-wide
11 won, 4 drawn, 11 lost across all competitions
Leading scorer: Victor Hugo Gomes Silva, 3 goals
Most assists: Tomás Esteban Cuello, 4 assists
Recent results — Atlético MG
31/05/2026 15:00
27/05/2026 18:00
24/05/2026 17:30
21/05/2026 18:00
16/05/2026 17:30
Bahia: how they are travelling
Bahia come in 17 matches into their Serie A.
Here is what Esquadrão de Aço have produced:
In this competition
7 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost
1.53 points per game
25 scored, at 1.47 a game
23 conceded, at 1.35 a game
Esquadrão de Aço, season-wide
9 won, 5 drawn, 8 lost across all competitions
Leading scorer: Luciano Batista da Silva Junior, 7 goals
Most assists: Éverton Ribeiro, 4 assists
Recent results — Esquadrão de Aço
17/07/2026 18:30
30/05/2026 16:30
25/05/2026 19:00
17/05/2026 15:00
13/05/2026 20:30
The head-to-head
Over 22 recent meetings between Atlético MG and Bahia:
Atlético MG: 7 win(s)
Bahia: 7 win(s)
Drawn: 8
An even record like this keeps the Atlético MG vs Bahia prediction genuinely open.
Form comparison Atlético MG vs Bahia
A side-by-side look at how both teams are performing right now, to set the context for your bets:
Home Team
Atlético MG
Brazil - Serie A
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall |
W
L
W
D
W
|
1.33 |
| Home |
W
D
L
W
W
|
1.88 |
| Away |
W
L
W
L
L
|
0.9 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 39% | 50% | 30% |
| Goals | 2.5 | 3.13 | 2 |
| Scored | 1.22 | 1.63 | 0.9 |
| Conceded | 1.28 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Both Teams to Score | 39% | 63% | 20% |
| Without Conceding | 22% | 25% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 39% | 13% | 60% |
| first to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
|
xG
|
1.44 | 1.53 | 1.36 |
|
xGA
|
1.55 | 1.51 | 1.59 |
Away Team
Bahia
Brazil - Serie A
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall |
W
W
L
D
L
|
1.61 |
| Home |
W
W
D
L
D
|
1.6 |
| Away |
L
D
L
W
L
|
1.63 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 44% | 40% | 50% |
| Goals | 2.78 | 2.6 | 3 |
| Scored | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.38 |
| Conceded | 1.28 | 1 | 1.63 |
| Both Teams to Score | 67% | 70% | 63% |
| Without Conceding | 28% | 30% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 6% | 0% | 13% |
| first to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
|
xG
|
1.6 | 1.79 | 1.38 |
|
xGA
|
1.51 | 1.21 | 1.88 |
Further markets to consider
Beyond the main tip at the top of the page, two more selections stand out for this match-up:
👉 Our prediction is: Draw
Who wins this match between Atlético MG and Bahia? For us, it's too close to call, so a draw is the best betting option for this match.
After taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of both sides, including recent form, it is clear that the most likely outcome is that the match ends with no winner.
👉 Prediction: Bahia win or Draw
Despite being the away side, we don’t expect Bahia to lose this match. Our recommended bet is Bahia to win or draw in the Double Chance market, ensuring a payout as long as they don’t lose.
Bahia has its weaknesses, but Atlético MG has been vulnerable, and home advantage might not be enough to keep them from losing.
Fixture information - Atlético MG vs Bahia
Match: Atlético MG vs Bahia
Competition: Serie A
Date: Tuesday, 21/07/2026
Kick-off: 23:30 (UK time)
Venue: Arena MRV
More Serie A predictions
Explore the rest of our Serie A predictions and keep up with the analysis round by round.
Stats
The statistics for Galão da Massa vs Tricolor Baiano that you will find on this page should help you make well-informed decisions for placing your bets.
Goal Average
3.07
League: 2.65
Both Teams to Score
63%
League: 57%
Over 1.5+
75%
League: 77%
Over 2.5+
63%
League: 50%
Cards
3.13
League: 5.1
Corners
9.88
League: 10.05
Home Team
Atlético MG
Brazil - Serie A
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall |
W
L
W
D
W
|
1.33 |
| Home |
W
D
L
W
W
|
1.88 |
| Away |
W
L
W
L
L
|
0.9 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 39% | 50% | 30% |
| Goals | 2.5 | 3.13 | 2 |
| Scored | 1.22 | 1.63 | 0.9 |
| Conceded | 1.28 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Both Teams to Score | 39% | 63% | 20% |
| Without Conceding | 22% | 25% | 20% |
| Failed To Score | 39% | 13% | 60% |
| first to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
|
xG
|
1.44 | 1.53 | 1.36 |
|
xGA
|
1.55 | 1.51 | 1.59 |
Away Team
Bahia
Brazil - Serie A
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall |
W
W
L
D
L
|
1.61 |
| Home |
W
W
D
L
D
|
1.6 |
| Away |
L
D
L
W
L
|
1.63 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 44% | 40% | 50% |
| Goals | 2.78 | 2.6 | 3 |
| Scored | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.38 |
| Conceded | 1.28 | 1 | 1.63 |
| Both Teams to Score | 67% | 70% | 63% |
| Without Conceding | 28% | 30% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 6% | 0% | 13% |
| first to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
|
xG
|
1.6 | 1.79 | 1.38 |
|
xGA
|
1.51 | 1.21 | 1.88 |
Corners
9.89 / Match
+17% Corners / Match
Bahia received +17% more corners than Atlético MG in the Serie A
11.56 / Match
Vasco da Gama
(4)
Corinthians
(0)
Mirassol
(5)
Botafogo
(6)
Cruzeiro
(1)
Flamengo
(8)
Coritiba
(8)(10)
Chapecoense
(10)
Botafogo
(6)
Coritiba
(7)
Grêmio
(6)
Cruzeiro
(10)
São Paulo
(5)
Santos
Cards
1.83 / Match
+27% Cards / Match
Bahia received +27% more cards than Atlético MG in the Serie A
2.33 / Match
Vasco da Gama
(1)
Corinthians
(2)
Mirassol
(0)
Botafogo
(0)
Cruzeiro
(6)
Flamengo
(1)
Coritiba
(1)(2)
Chapecoense
(2)
Botafogo
(3)
Coritiba
(4)
Grêmio
(3)
Cruzeiro
(3)
São Paulo
(3)
Santos
Goals Scored
1.22 / Match
+23%
Bahia is +23% better in terms of goals scored
1.5 / Match
Vasco da Gama
(1)
Corinthians
(0)
Mirassol
(3)
Botafogo
(1)
Cruzeiro
(3)
Flamengo
(0)
Coritiba
(0)(2)
Chapecoense
(2)
Botafogo
(2)
Coritiba
(1)
Grêmio
(1)
Cruzeiro
(2)
São Paulo
(2)
Santos
Goals Conceded
1.28 / Match
+0%
Both Teams are equal in terms of goals conceded
1.28 / Match
Vasco da Gama
(0)
Corinthians
(1)
Mirassol
(1)
Botafogo
(1)
Cruzeiro
(1)
Flamengo
(4)
Coritiba
(2)(0)
Chapecoense
(1)
Botafogo
(3)
Coritiba
(1)
Grêmio
(2)
Cruzeiro
(2)
São Paulo
(2)
Santos
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Palmeiras
|
18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | 2.28 |
| 2 |
Flamengo
|
17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | 2 |
| 3 |
Fluminense
|
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 31 | 1.72 |
| 4 |
Athletico-PR
|
18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | 1.67 |
| 5 |
RB Bragantino
|
18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 29 | 1.61 |
| 6 |
Bahia
|
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 26 | 1.53 |
| 7 |
Coritiba
|
18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 26 | 1.44 |
| 8 |
São Paulo
|
18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 25 | 1.39 |
| 9 |
Corinthians
|
18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 24 | 1.33 |
| 10 |
Atlético MG
|
18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 24 | 1.33 |
| 11 |
Cruzeiro
|
18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 24 | 1.33 |
| 12 |
Botafogo
|
17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 22 | 1.29 |
| 13 |
Vitória
|
17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 22 | 1.29 |
| 14 |
Internacional
|
18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 21 | 1.17 |
| 15 |
Grêmio
|
18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 21 | 1.17 |
| 16 |
Santos
|
18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 21 | 1.17 |
| 17 |
Vasco da Gama
|
18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 20 | 1.11 |
| 18 |
Remo
|
18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | 1 |
| 19 |
Mirassol
|
17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 16 | 0.94 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense
|
17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 9 | 0.53 |
Odds
Toba is a betting enthusiast with a keen interest in helping Nigerian players with the knowledge needed to navigate the sometimes complex world of sports betting. He combines his years of experience in sports journalism and passion for sports betting to craft easy to understand reviews and analysis of diverse betting topics. He has a very good knowledge of the Nigerian market and what would enhance the betting experience of an average Nigerian bettor. That is why he is dedicated to showcasing the best bookmakers, latest bonuses and general tips that can help you have a smooth betting adventure.
