Value betting is a strategy that can significantly increase your chances of long-term profitability in gambling. Unfamiliar with this approach? Our comprehensive review explains this betting strategy, how it works, and how to identify potential opportunities.
What is Value Betting?
Value betting involves identifying opportunities where the bookmakers' odds underestimate the likelihood of an outcome occurring.
Bettors who use this strategy conduct in-depth research to check if their expected outcome has a higher chance of happening than what the sportsbook's odds suggest.
Betting on the discrepancy between the perceived and actual probabilities ensures the bettor gains a valuable edge over the bookmaker.
A prime example of a potential value bet arises when a sports team has a chance of achieving a specific result.
Yet, bookies offer them odds that do not reflect that likelihood. Recognizing bookies who undervalue the team's true prospects is crucial for any successful value bettor.
Value Betting Strategy
The core principle of value betting is identifying when sportsbooks have mispriced the odds of an outcome occurring. Rather than guessing likely outcomes, A bettor must conduct research to uncover these hidden opportunities.
Identifying these favorable value odds lets you profit from wagers in the long run. However, solely relying on this strategy is not the best approach. You must combine the value bet strategy with other proven tactics for long-term success.
Patience is a must-have virtue for a value bettor. Unlike Arbitrage, there are no guarantees. Value betting gives bettors an edge but does not ensure immediate or constant wins.
Unexpected circumstances may influence outcomes, causing you to lose the bet. So, you must have a high tolerance for risks.
Navigating variances contributes to a great value betting strategy. Variance tells you how much an outcome compares to or differs from expectation.
Variances in value bets can vary based on market type, odds range, number of bets, and criteria for selecting bets.
Risk management is also vital in value betting. When a value bet has a high variance – high odds and a low chance of occurring- it is best to cash out early before things go sideways.
Re-betting is another option under risk management.
Managing bankroll is a crucial part of gambling and is useful in value betting. We propose 1% wagers on standard selections and up to 5% on sure odds. Our website, EaglePredict, can provide you with the best Soccer sure odds.
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How Does Value Betting Work?
You can not triumph with value betting without being able to analyze sports event outcomes. Be ready to do the work when it comes to analysis or research.
You need to collect several data points, including history, recent game statistics, and recent results.
Combining that information will help you determine the form of your preferred team. It also helps if you consider injury-related information, weather forecasts, and performance-related statistics.
You can now constructively determine the probability of an outcome happening using facts.
For example, let us analyze a basketball game between the Lakers and the Celtics. Using form statistics, the Lakers are the favorite to win.
By analyzing team data carefully, let us give the Lakers a 70% winning chance over the Celtics. The 70% chance translates into a 0.7 probability. We then calculate the equivalent decimal odds:
Decimal odds = 1/(win probability)
Our fact-determined decimal odds = 1/0.7 = 1.43
We have a potential value bet opportunity if our chosen bookmaker offers 1.5 odds on the Lakers winning.
There is a standard formula for determining a value bet:
Value = (Your probability of a team winning * Bookmaker’s decimal odds) – 1
You will have a value bet opportunity if the result exceeds zero. We shall reuse the Lakers vs. the Celtics. Our Lakers’ win probability is 0.7, and the bookmaker’s is 1.5. We then have:
Value = (0.7*1.5) – 1 = 1.05 – 1 = 0.05
Our value, 0.05, is more than zero. This result shows that staking on the Lakers’ to win on our chosen bookmaker puts us in a value betting position.
What is Value Betting in Soccer?
Applying the value bet strategy in soccer involves finding bookmaker odds higher than the factual odds of an outcome occurring. For instance, if a bookmaker provides a 1.67 odds on Leicester City beating Chelsea FC in the FA Cup Quarter Finals, we can determine the potential for a value bet.
We analyze that Leicester City has recently beaten Chelsea FC in cup competitions, making them the favorite. With Chelsea’s bad form in the 2023/2024 season, we can raise the chances of Leicester City winning the tie to 75% (0.75 probability).
Let us calculate our decimal odds using the formula:
Decimal odds = 1/(win probability)
Decimal odds = 1/(0.75) = 1.33
We end up with 1.33, a value lesser than the bookmaker’s 1.67 odds of Leicester City beating Chelsea FC. Thus, we can conclude that staking on Leicester to win represents value betting.
We can also use the value formula to determine if this is a case of value betting:
Value = (Your probability of a team winning * Bookmaker’s decimal odds) – 1
From the example, our given probability of Leicester City beating Chelsea FC is 0.75. Our chosen bookmaker gives Leicester City a 1.67 winning odds.
Value = (0.75*1.67) – 1 = 0.25
A result higher than zero translates into “Leicester City beating Chelsea FC” being a value bet opportunity.
Conclusion
Unlike arbitrage betting, the value betting strategy does not guarantee wins. However, by being patient and consistent, you can gain long-term success with this strategy. This strategy requires in-depth research and statistical analysis of sporting events.
You must also be able to spot the variations between fact-determined and bookmaker odds. Sign up at EaglePredict for direct access to daily sure odds on outcomes of football games.
